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USING MODELING AND SIMULATION TO EVALUATE DISEASE CONTROL MEASURES
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Title
USING
MODELING
AND
SIMULATION
TO
EVALUATE
DISEASE
CONTROL
MEASURES
Author
Atkins, Tracy
Keywords
epidemic
deterministic
stochastic
model
Abstract
This
dissertation
introduced
several
issues
concerning
the
analysis
of
diseases
by
showing
how
modeling
and
simulation
could
be
used
to
assist
in
creating
health
policy
by
estimating
the
effects
of
such
policies.
The
first
question
posed
was how would
education
,
vaccination
and a
combination
of these
two
programs
effect
the
possible
outbreak
of
meningitis
on a
college
campus.
After
creating
a
model
representative
of the
transmission
dynamics
of
meningitis
and
establishing
parameter
values
characteristic
of the
University
of
Central
Florida
main
campus
, the
results
of a
deterministic
model
were
presented
in
several
forms.
The
result
of this
model
was the
combination
of
education
and
vaccination
would
eliminate
the
possibility
of an
epidemic
on
our
campus.
Next
,
we
used
simulation
to
evaluate
how
quarantine
and
treatment
would
affect
an
outbreak
of
influenza
on the
same
population.
A
mathematical
model
was
created
specific
to
influenza
on the
UCF
campus.
Numerical
results
from this
model
were then
presented
in
tabular
and
graphical
form.
The
results
comparing
the
simulations
for
quarantine
and
treatment
show
the
best
course
of
action
would be to
enact
a
quarantine
policy
on the
campus
thus
reducing
the
maximum
number
of
infected
while
increasing
the
time
to
reach
this
peak.
Finally
,
we
addressed
the
issue
of
performing
the
analysis
stochastically
versus
deterministically.
Additional
models
were
created
with the
progression
of the
disease
occurring
by
chance.
Statistical
analysis
was
done
on the
mean
of
100
stochastic
simulation
runs
comparing
that
value
to the
one
deterministic
outcome.
The
results
for this
analysis
were
inconclusive
, as the
results
for
meningitis
were
comparable
while
those for
influenza
appeared
to be
different.
Adviser
Clarke, Thomas
Publisher
University
of
Central
Florida
Degree
Ph.D.
Degree Discipline
Other
Degree Grantor
Sciences
Degree Program
Modeling and Simulation PhD
Graduation Date
2010-01-01
Type
Doctoral dissertation
Access Level
Public - Allow Worldwide Access
Release Date
2010-08-18
Repository
University Archives
Repository Collection
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier
CFE0003232
Access Link
http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/CFE0003232
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